Twins 3, Yankees 1

So I said the Twins wouldn’t win one in the Bronx. I also said the playoffs were a crapshoot. I hope I emphasized the latter more than the former. For the record: I'll still be surprised if the Twins win this series.

Bonds-post-season-obp-o-meter: 0-0, IBB, 1.000 OBP

I wouldn't be surprised if Bonds got intentionally walked with the bases loaded at some point this postseason.

Quote of the day:

“I’d sell all my worldly possessions and wait for the Lord to take me to Zion.” - Hayden, my co-worker, on what he would do if the Cubs played the Red Sox in the World Series this year.

You asked for 'em, you got 'em: 2003 Playoff Predictions

Before last season, I thought that dominant pitching was the key to winning in the postseason. I thought that the Yankees and the Diamondbacks would both repeat appearances in the postseason because of their seemingly dominant, unhittable 1-2 punches: Johnson/Schilling, Clemens/Mussina. Of course, as we all know now, last season proved that, especially when there is a 5 game series involved, the Major League Baseball postseason is a crapshoot. Both wild card teams made the World Series. The Anaheim Angels – from a personnel perspective, practically the exact same team that finished 3rd in the AL West this season – hit-and-run their way to a championship. Remember that? When the Anaheim Angels won? It’s still a little weird, isn’t it?

Anyway, because of their crapshooty nature, I have not put all that much thought or effort into my playoff predictions. Keep that in mind when you read them. All three teams I have listed under the “allegiances” portion (see my very first entry) are in the postseason this year, so I’m pretty happy.

NLDS
Cubs vs. Braves
The parallels to the Red Sox – A’s series here are interesting; two teams, one’s success based on offense, one’s success based on pitching. For those reasons, I think the Cubs-Atlanta series and the Boston-Oakland series will be the most interesting to watch in the first round.

I don’t think the Cubs are going to beat the Braves. I’m sorry, but I just don’t. But that said, I think the Cubs are the underdog most likely to beat their opponent. Unless you consider the Red Sox an underdog (which I don’t – more on this in a minute). But let me say this: If the Cubs can get past the Braves, I believe they will go to the World Series. Seriously.

Braves in 5 (the Cubs win their first playoff game in 14 seasons).

NLDS
Marlins vs. Giants
The Marlins are a good team; they’re a better team than the Cubs. But do you know who’s better than them both? The Giants. If Felipe Alou is smart, he’ll hit Edgardo Alfonzo behind Barry Bonds. He has hit the best in that spot out of any Giant.

Giants in 4.

ALDS
Twins vs. Yankees
The only upset that would genuinely shock me would be the Twins over the Yankees. I believe that the Fish could beat the Giants; I believe the Cubs could beat the Braves; I believe the A’s could beat the Red Sox. But the Twins beating the Yankees? This one is my lock of the week.

Yankees in 4 (the Twins win one at the homer-dome).

ALDS
Red Sox vs. A’s
Out of 13 experts on ESPN.com’s baseball page, 12 of them picked the Red Sox to win this series. Since when is a wild card team so heavily favored? Maybe it’s because of the A’s inability to get it done in recent years in the postseason. Maybe it’s because of the Red Sox’s extraordinary offense. I think that this series will be way closer than people think, and I can’t really pick a winner. I’ll go with the Red Sox because Pedro is pitching game 1 and game 5 – that’s probably two victories – and Derek Lowe is pitching game 3 at Fenway, where he has been brilliant this season. I know that may not seem like that big of a deal, but I think that playoff baseball is very mental; Derek Lowe knows that his numbers at Fenway are much better than his road numbers.

NLCS
Giants vs. Braves
Pitching vs. Offense, once again. The Giants played over their expected W-L this year, which makes me think that the Braves are a better team. Plus the Braves will have home field advantage. But the playoffs are a crapshoot, and I’m just not feeling the Braves this year. I think I picked the Giants to go to the World Series at the beginning of the season. Maybe. At any rate,
Giants in 6.

ALCS
Red Sox vs. Yankees
A rematch of 1999’s matchup. With the same results. Simply put, the Yankees are a better team.
Yankees in 6.

World Series
Get nostalgic, New Yorkers! It’s the Giants vs. the Yankees, the latter of whom stole home field advantage thanks to the All-Star game. It ends up making a huge difference, as the Yankees win Game 7 in the Bronx. Barry still has no ring, and curses the stupidity of making that exhibition count. Bud Selig responds, “Well, Barry, next year you should try harder during the game.”

Yankees, World Champions (begrudgingly, again), in 7.

I Was There

Until Saturday, the greatest day of baseball I had ever experienced was in October of 1999. I was a freshman at Boston University and by virtue of no less than a miracle I obtained tickets to Game 3 of the American League Championship Series between the Red Sox and the Yankees. It wasn't enough that it was the ALCS, that it was the Red Sox; it wasn't even enough that it was an ALCS of the Red Sox vs. the Yankees; it was Pedro Martinez vs. Roger Clemens. The Red Sox won, 13-3. It was the only game that postseason the Yankees would lose.

But Saturday topped it, for a number of reasons. I'm sure there are many of you asking, "How could a Martinez-Clemens ALCS game, in which the Evil Empire was trounced, possibly be topped by a Cubs-Pirates doubleheader?"

It tops it in so many ways it's not even funny. As a Cub fan, the most amazing part was to be there as the drama unfolded. I was there for all 18 innings. For eight glorious hours, I was immersed in the high drama of watching three games that would clinch a playoff for the Cubs for the first time in five years, and a division title for the first time in 14. The Cubs are my team of teams. They are a team that succeeds so rarely that when they do, it is something that truly must be experienced in person to understand. The atmosphere the Cub fans created at that game was unlike any I have ever experienced. While the atmosphere at Fenway Park during the ALCS was electric and excited, the atmosphere at Wrigley was anticipatory and supportive. While Cub fans are always supportive, the game itself always seems to get lost in the afternoon sun at Wrigley. In general, Cub fans are much more interested in looking at the pretty people in the seats and chugging a few beers than the game. Saturday was different. There were probably just two or three instances during the whole day (in Game one or Game two) in which the entire crowd did not give a standing ovation to a Pirate hitter with a two-strike count. When Sammy Sosa hit his mammoth 450-foot home run in game two for his fortieth of the season, the crowd's united "YEAH!" upon the pop and the hop was louder and more in synch than I have ever heard it.

I'll remember game two and what came after it, especially, forever.

Sosa's blast. The performance the Cubs so sorely needed from Matt Clement: 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER. The five-run 2nd. The 6-4-3 double play that ended it. "The hop" in the center of the diamond. Sammy Sosa getting doused with champagne not 100 feet from where I was sitting. The Cubs walking around Wrigley Field, waving to the fans. The 3rd base/left field section chanting "Dus-TY, Dus-TY" when he walked by (we were the only part of the crowd that did that), to smiles and waves from the manager. Coming inches away from getting a high five from Sammy Sosa. Getting a few drops of Kyle Farnsworth's champagne sprayed on me. Seeing Sammy sprint out to right field with a bottle of champagne and open it up on the right field Ivy and bleachers. The players' children running around the field in oversized NL Central Champions t-shirts and hats. Seeing the rooftop across the street on Sheffield Avenue that displays a sign that until Saturday read: AC145895: After Cubs, 14 (years since division title), 58 (years since NL pennant), 95 (years since World Series). I saw them drop the 14. That sign now reads: AC 05895. With the camaraderie that the players showed with the fans, it seemed only appropriate that the Cubs clinched the division title on Fan appreciation day. Long after the game was over, the players stayed out on the field, waving and smiling at the fans, knowing that we were almost as elated as they were.

The best part about being at that game was that for one, brief shining moment, the Cubs were on top of the world. For one moment, the sky was the limit for the Chicago Cubs. They had come back from a 95-loss season to win their division. In Boston, the Red Sox fans left the ballpark feeling good, but apprehensive; the Red Sox were still losing that series, 2 games to 1. But the Cubs fans were able to leave the ballpark without such fears. Regardless of what result comes in the National League Division Series with Atlanta, for one Saturday evening, in one little ballpark in Chicago, all was right with the world for 40,121 fans and 41 Chicago Cubs.

And I was there.

Joe Morgan

It was only a matter of time until I blogged something about Joe Morgan. Let me preface this by saying that Joe Morgan was an incredible, amazing baseball player. He is one of, if not the greatest second baseman to ever put on a pair of spikes.

But that said, Joe Morgan is a terrible analyst. He is a terrible analyst on television, and he is a terrible analyst off television. He is the master of the obvious. The all-time Joe Morgan classic on-camera quote is, "Well, the bases are loaded right now. If he hits a home run, that's four runs."

I enjoy Morgan on-camera more than I do off-camera, because at least when he's analyzing games, he's doing it on the fly. That, in my mind, gives some lenience to how he sounds and what he says. I have only broadcast one baseball game in my life; it was a high school game, and I did play-by-play. It wasn't the toughest thing I've ever done in my life, but it was a challenge. I can only imagine it's very difficult to come up with interesting things to say when one is analyzing a baseball game.

But in writing, I give Joe Morgan no excuses. He disregards statistics completely, and uses the words "mindset" and "chemistry" a lot. Last week in his chat, he argued that wins, not ERA, not innings pitched, not quality starts, but wins, something over which the pitcher has absolutely/virtually no control (AL/NL, respectively), should be the lone deciding factor in the Cy Young race.

That should be enough to prove to you all that Joe Morgan is, indeed, a moron. But if it's not enough, take a look at this excerpt from his chat this week about the Mariners:

tony concord, CA: Joe, what is up with the Mariners....they just cannot seem to EVER get it done...Are the A's REALLY a better team??

Joe Morgan: That's a very good question Tony, when I saw the Ms in June and July, they looked like the best team in baseball, everything was working well for them. When I saw them in late August things were starting to go downhill for them, and now, they only have one guy (Ichiro) hitting over .300. I'm shocked, they just cannot finish, I don't know what it is, they certainly have the talent. I wish I had the answers. Nobody knows.

Wrong! I know why the Mariners failed, Joe! And I'm not even in the hall of fame!

The Mariners failed this season because they were unlucky.

Oakland
Runs Scored: 758 Runs Allowed: 618
Expected W-L: 96-63
Actual W-L: 96-63

Seattle
Runs Scored: 770 Runs Allowed: 627
Expected W-L: 96-63
Actual W-L: 90-69

The M's and the A's have essentially both played equally good baseball. The M's have scored a few more runs; the A's have allowed fewer. Why did the A's end up winning more games? Because this year, the M's got unlucky. They played 6 games below their expected W-L. In 2001 when the M's won 116 games, they got lucky, and finished 5 games above their expected W-L. Sometimes the difference between a tight race and a playoff spot is just dumb luck (see NL Central). Not "chemistry" or "mindset" or "desire" or whatever - dumb honkin' luck.

Quote of the day

From Rob Neyer's weekly chat on ESPN.com:

Jeremiah (Red Sox Nation): Cubs vs. Red Sox -- Best matchup ever?

Rob Neyer: In a word? Yes.


It's not even close. You've got two teams that 1) have waited forever to win another World Series, and play in the only two pre-1960 ballparks left. If the thought of an all-Fenway/Wrigley World Series doesn't send a shiver down your spine, there's something very, very wrong with you.

Cubs, Prior

The rain delay is making my work day considerably less exciting. If you're feeling the same way, check out this article from the Prospectus boys about Mark Prior. It will make you feel good to be a Cub fan.

Zambrano's Troubles: Emotional or Physical?

With the Red Sox clinching the wild card last night, the races for the AL playoffs came to an end. The Red Sox will travel to Oakland Tuesday, and the Twins will head to the Bronx. With the BoSox up 12-0 after 4 against the Orioles, and the Cubs beating the Reds, I immediately started to mull over what I felt I would undoubtedly write about today: my AL playoff predictions. But then the Reds scored 6 times in the bottom of the 6th against the Zambrano-Veres-Guthrie combination. While I will make my AL playoff predictions, I feel that I can’t not address the Cubs’ collapse against the Reds last night.

Before the start of this season, Kerry Wood was my favorite Cub pitcher and had been since 1998. This year, Carlos Zambrano won my heart over because of his color: not only was he a dominant pitcher, but he was emotional. Whether it is a fist pump after a strikeout or a celebration after a base hit, Zambrano appears, at least, to play the game with wreckless abandon. And I love it. There are probably a lot of managers and coaches and “baseball men” that think that Zambrano’s antics are showy and unprofessional, but as a baseball fan, I love players like Zambrano.

Last night, Zambrano had his second consecutive poor outing. His line on the night:

5+ IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K, 96 PT

On both Baseball Tonight and WGN’s broadcast of the Cubs game, they pointed to Zambrano’s frustration with himself as the melting point of his night. In the 6th inning, when Zambrano was having trouble hitting his spots, he started to get upset. Zambrano showed his frustration with the same passion as he shows his joy. He wasn’t just talking to himself as he paced around the mound; he was yelling and swearing at himself, absolutely livid that he could not hit his spots. Said Steve Stone: “Anger is a luxury a pitcher cannot afford.”

I don’t think it was his emotions getting the best of him that expelled Zambrano from the game. I think it was his sore back. After his last outing, Zambrano complained of pain in his lower back. After his disastrous outing in Pittsburgh, Zambrano had to return to Chicago for treatment. Naturally, after last night’s game, Zambrano would not place blame on his injury. Obviously, I don’t really know how Zambrano’s back feels, but I do have numbers:

The 8 starts before Pittsburgh and alleged back pain:
61 IP, 10 ER, 41 H, 21 BB, 50 K – ERA: 1.48, WHIP: 1.01

The 2 starts after alleged back pain:
9.2 IP, 11 ER, 15 H, 8 BB, 8 K – ERA: 10.24, WHIP: 2.38

I can hear my friend Ross hollering “small sample size!” about sample number two. True, it is a small sample size; but it doesn’t change the fact that Zambrano’s numbers skyrocketed in his last two starts, and that in his last two starts there have been reports in the Chicago Tribune of Zambrano feeling back and knee pain. An even more interesting statistic is the almighty Pitch Count, which came into play in a big way before Zambrano’s fateful outing against Pittsburgh. Zambrano threw a whopping 129 pitches in his final quality start of the season, losing a heartbreaker to the Reds, 1-0.

I am a believer in the A’s philosophy on pitch counts, which is very strict for young pitchers. Dusty Baker probably left Carlos Zambrano in the game too long that day against the Reds. Zambrano ended up losing that game 1-0, throwing a complete game and giving up just one run. I understand the situation of that game; it was close and Zambrano was throwing the ball very well. But I question Dusty Baker’s belief to keep Zambrano out there when the team is in a pennant race, and will need Zambrano later in the season, and potentially the postseason.

I will close with this: Carlos Zambrano has thrown more than 120 pitches five times all season. Here are his numbers in starts after he threw 120 or more pitches:

IP H ER BB SO ERA
6.2 5 4 4 5 5.40
6.0 8 3 3 7 4.50
6.0 7 4 4 2 6.00
7.0 5 2 3 3 2.57
4.2 8 6 3 3 11.57
6.0 6.6 3.8 3.4 4 5.67 120+ Average
6.2 5.9 2.3 2.9 5.3 3.11 Season Average


The numbers aren’t astronomically different (see Kerry Wood), but they are significant. Saving an extra 2.5 runs per nine innings is something that can really help the Cubs, a team that has had trouble scoring runs this season (they are 9th in the NL in runs scored).

Magic Number: 4

After Tuesday's victory against the Astros, Felipe Alou sent most of his good players home, and sent out a scrub lineup to face Roy Oswalt yesterday. Alou said his guys needed an extra day off going into the final series of the year, which the Giants will play against the Dodgers in San Fransisco. This is the lineup Alou played yesterday:

Player OBP
Young .336
Benard .222
Hammonds .333
Galarraga .352
Feliz .274
Perez .286
Linden .219
Torrealba .314

Those numbers were accurate after the game was over; naturally, the Giants lost, 2-1, as they put out the ever popular, Chicago Cub-esque "unable to get on base" style lineup.

Putting this lineup out with Roy Oswalt on the mound is basically forfeiting this game before it starts. It's a damn shame, too, considering how well Sidney Ponson pitched in this game (7 IP, 2 ER). The Giants have averaged 4.6 runs per game this year; even putting Barry Bonds and his .528 OBP in that three slot may have altered the course of this game.

With the NL West now officially in the Giants' pockets, Alou seems to think he should rest his players for the postseason. Were I in Felipe Alou's shoes, I would be pressing my players even harder right now, as something more important than the division crown is at stake: home field advantage in the NLCS.

Since the wild card is almost definitely coming out of the east, and it will almost definitely be the Marlins, Alou knows that he will have the home field advantage in the NLDS. But I genuinely don't understand why he wouldn't be trying for that best record. I say this not just as a cub fan, but as a baseball fan.

Including the Braves' romping of the Expos last night, here are the standings for the best record race in the NL:

Team W L GB
Atlanta 99 60 -
San Fransisco 97 60 1

The race is extra tight, and Felipe Alou doesn't seem to care. He should. The two best teams in the NL will be favored to knock out the Marlins and the Cubs.
These teams, in terms of their home/road splits, are so evenly matched that it's downright eerie (records accurate as of this morning):


Home Road
San Fransisco 54-23 43-36
Atlanta 54-26 44-34

Not only are both teams approximately 20 games over at home; they're both approximately 10 games over on the road. What does this mean? It means that home field advantage in an NLCS between Atlanta and San Fransisco will likely be enormously important. Both pitching staffs are used to pitching in, and to, their respective ballparks. A mistake pitch at the Ted may not equal a mistake at Pac Bell, and vice versa. If you don't believe me, look at the season series results. The Giants won the season series 4-2, but the home team won 5 out of 6 games.

Turner Field:
5/9: 9-2 (Giants)
5/10: 6-3 (Braves)
5/11: 7-3 (Braves)

Pacific Bell:
8/19: 5-4 (Giants)
8/20: 2-1 (Giants)
8/21: 4-3 (Giants)

Get this: The Giants won all three of those home games in their last at-bat. The 19th and the 21st were won in the bottom of the 10th; the game on the 20th ended in the bottom of the 9th on a Barry Bonds walk-off home run. It's a small sample size, but in three consecutive games the San Fransisco Giants managed to utilize what they needed to win: the fact that they were playing at home and had last at-bats.

2003 Predictions

Every year, my friends and I send out e-mail predictions of the way the coming season will turn out. This year, I lost my predictions; however, because I am a dork, I put a good amount of time into researching my predictions, and have them (mostly) memorized from the beginning of the year. I don't promise that the predictions below are exactly what I predicted at the beginning of the season; if I find the e-mail that contains that information, I promise I will post it. Wild card predictions are marked by an asterix.

NL Central
Houston
St. Louis
Cincinatti
Chicago
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee

NL East
Atlanta
Philadelphia*
New York
Montreal
Florida

NL West
San Fransisco
Arizona
Los Angeles
San Diego
Colorado

AL Central
Minnesota
Chicago
Cleveland
Kansas City
Detroit

AL East
New York
Boston
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

AL West
Oakland
Seattle
Anaheim
Texas

The first post: The why and the what.

Greetings, small internet audience.

For about four years now, I have been writing and maintaining my own humor website, Taftese, which features a weekly humor column.

Taftese used to have a Baseball section. I would write and post my and my friends' predictions and thoughts for the coming year, our postseason predictions, awards, etc. Unfortunately, I updated this section approximately twice per season; once at the beginning and once at the end. I didn't feel that the Baseball section really fit the format of Taftese, nor did I feel that I was really writing the kind of baseball analysis I wanted to. So the Baseball portion of Taftese died.

The reason I decided to start this blog is that my love for baseball has grown to a point where I simply must write about it. The blog is a perfect format for me to do it in, as I can write about whatever I want, whenever I want, and have it published (at least in some aspect) instantly.

If you're reading this, and there's nothing else yet posted on this page, you're probably wondering what to expect in terms of my analysis. To put it simply and vaguely, I hope to offer intelligent and sometimes humorous analysis of any given aspect of baseball. My analysis will likely be skewed toward my allegiances. I feel that it is important that every sports writer identify his/her allegiances at the outset of things. No sports writer doesn't have allegiances. If a sports writer has no allegiances, he/she is not really interested enough in sports to write about it. So, without further ado, here are my allegiances:

1. Chicago Cubs. I was born and raised in Chicago's north suburbs. As soon as I showed an interest in baseball at a young age, my dad (who is from Vermont) bought me a Cubs hat, and explained that as a North Sider, I was a Cub fan. At the tender age of (probably) 5, I didn't understand what I was getting into. I grew up watching the Cubs on WGN, with Harry Caray and Steve Stone on the call.

2. Boston Red Sox. My allegiance to the Boston Red Sox was born out of two things. First, the Red Sox were my dad's team growing up in Vermont. Since he has lived in Chicago now for longer than he lived in Vermont, my dad's favorite team is now the Cubs. But he has, and I have, a special spot in my heart for the Red Sox. The second thing that spurred my Red Sox fandom was my freshman year at college. Before transferring to the University of Missouri at Columbia, where I graduated from, I attended Boston University for one year. My dorm was a scant five minute walk from Fenway Park. Even though I didn't agree with BU, I quickly fell in love with the Red Sox, their ballpark and their knowledgeable fans.

3. Oakland Athletics. I am less of a fan of the Oakland A's, and more of an admirer of their organization. Just like being in Fenway Park caused me to fall in love with the Red Sox, Michael Lewis' Moneyball caused me to fall in love with the A's, at the very least, on an organizational level. I believe they are the most efficiently run organization in the game, as they follow a sabermetric model, and continue to win despite a small fan base and limited payroll. I also have family ties to the Bay Area, as my mom's family lives in the suburbs of San Fransisco.

In concluding my very first baseball blog, I would like to thank anyone who is reading this. I hope you will return soon for some actual baseball analysis... which will be coming soon, I hope.