It's Probably Over

The question was, which version of the Cub offense was going to show up today? The strong, verile one, which scores 5+ runs a game? Or the weak, impotent one, that depends on the long ball like I depend on coffee, which scores 0 to 2 runs a game against the likes of Victor Santos, Scott Downs, and Aaron Harang.

Ron Santo made a good point on today's broadcast. He remarked that the Cubs seem to get hot and to slump all at the same time, no matter the situation. I feel that that is a pretty accurate assessment of the Cubs' inconsistencies this year; they're either hot all together, or cold all together. When they are hot (offensively) it seems like they need to get permission from somebody in the lineup to get hot, and then the floodgates open.

This baseball season has taught me a couple of things:
1. Most mainstream sports writers and analysts (such as Joe Morgan, John Kruk and almost anybody else on ESPN.com) are ex-jock idiots who are too quick to discount the importance of statistics they don't understand or have never heard of.
2. Most stat-heavy sports writers (such as the good folks over at Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus) are nerds who have never played much baseball, and are too quick to discount sound fundamentals and human elements such as pressure and chemistry.
3. The Cubs played lousy fundamental baseball this year. They struck out too much and, as a result made very few productive outs (while I know the value of productive outs has been widley debated, the simple fact remains, if you don't make contact with the ball, a runner on base isn't going anywhere. The top productive out maker on the Cubs this year was Ramon Martinez, who finished a 50th (not good) in baseball. The top productive out maker on the Cubs that was a regular player was Michael Barrett, who finished 64th).
4. The Cubs did not play well under pressure this year. There's something to be said for pressure, from both the media and the fans, and it seemed like every time there was a really important game that the Cubs just had to win, they lost it, but then came back with a string of 4 or 5 in a row afterwards. Expectations have never been like this for the Cubs. The media has never been like this. The fans have never been angry and vicious. This is uncharted, big-market, marquis franchise, Yankee-and-Red-Sox-type pressure, and, quite frankly, most people in that clubhouse (Dusty Baker included - with all due respect to Dusty, San Francisco is not Chicago. Giants fans aren't half as rabid as Cub fans, and the size and coverage of the Bay Area media does not hold a candle to the size and coverage of the third-largest media market in the country) are not used to dealing with that. Last year, the Cubs were coming off a 67-95 season. Expectations could not have been any lower. Fans were going to be thrilled with a 77 win season. This year was a different story.

One final note: the Cubs have hit more home runs than any other team in the National League this year (228). Yes, more than the Cardinals. Yes, more than the Rockies and the Astros. They finished 8th in strikeouts, which suggests that maybe strikeouts aren't the real problem; maybe it's the dependence on the longball, which either kills them (when they don't hit any) or brings them to life (when they do).

There's got to be a better way.

Where's the offense?

This is pathetic. Prior strikes out 16, in 9 innings, allows 3 hits, makes one mistake pitch the whole game, and the best the Cubs can do is tie it against Aaron Harang's 5.03 ERA-having-ass.

A home run!

Wow, I can't believe it. The Cubs actually scored a run on a day when their pitcher is throwing a gem. Prior currently has 13 strikeouts through 6 innings. Trick nasty.

On the brink of elimination, a reason for celebration

The Cubs are now tied with the Giants and a half-game behind the Astros. They currently have a record of 88-70 with four games to play. The Cubs must win their remaining four games, or their wild card hopes are effectively over. There is still hope right now, as a win today (with the Astros idle) will catapult the Cubs back into a tie for the wild card lead. If the Giants and the Cubs win, there will be a three-way tie for the wild card lead with just three games to play for all three teams. Exciting? Yes. Potentially heart attack-inducing? Hell, yes.

If the Cubs lose this afternoon, their fate will depend on the Astros losing to the Rockies and the Giants losing to the Dodgers; but, realistically, if they lose this afternoon, the season will be over.

I worry that a lot of Cub fans will be angry and prone to booing if the Cubs don’t make the playoffs. That would be incredibly unfortunate. These are the same people who boo(ed) Sosa; they’re not real Cub fans, they just want to see a winner. They jumped on the bandwagon after 2003 and are hoping that it drives them to a World Series victory. No real Cub fan I know booed Sammy Sosa this year. I was at a Cub game with my family earlier this summer, and the guy sitting behind me was booing Sosa loudly. I asked him about it, and it turned out that this guy was a White Sox fan. But get this: he had a Cubs hat on, and he rooted for the Cubs, loudly and obnoxiously the entire game. He just booed Sosa “because all he does is try to hit home runs.”

Funny, nobody cared about that when Sosa hit 60 homers three years in a row. And Sosa has hit 33 homers this year. It’s not 60, but it’s pretty good for a 35-year-old.

The Sosa Booers are the same people who will boo if the Cubs are eliminated. The real Cub fans, if the Cubs indeed are eliminated before the last day of the season, will show up with signs that read “Thanks for a Great Year!” and “Come Back, Nomar!” These (real) fans will recognize this season for what it is: a success.

You heard me, a success. Barring a really horrible collapse, the Cubs will win one more game this year. That will make 89 wins, which is more wins than the division-winning team had last year. Last year’s club was not a great team. They were very lucky. By just about any measure, the Astos were the best team in the National League Central last season. Their run differential was better than the Cubs’ on both sides: they scored more runs (805 vs. 725) and allowed fewer (677 vs. 683). The Cubs got very hot in September, which is all you need to be to have a successful run in the postseason, which the Cubs had. This season, the Cubs have scored more runs than they did last year (768) and they have allowed fewer than they did last year (642). Even if they don’t make the playoffs, this is an improved baseball team, that is better on both sides of the ball than they were last year. That’s not something that you can argue with; it’s fact.

At its most rudimentary level, this season is a success because the Cubs were a winning team. This will be the first time in 30 years that the Cubs have had back-to-back winning teams. Will I be disappointed if the Cubs don’t get to the playoffs? Of course I will be. But for most years of my childhood, I suffered through long, losing summers, during which the Cubs usually won (at most) 77 or 78 games. And that was a good year. So I will appreciate that the Cubs went down to the wire for the second year in a row. When White Sox fans mock me for having a team that chokes, I will mock them for being out of the race for the last two months in the worst division in baseball. I will revel in the Cubs and their successful year. And will look forward to next year…

… when they’ll have the division crown clinched by August.

Fuck You, Austin Kearns

That is all.

Au Revoir, Montreal

MLB will announce today that the Expos are moving to Washington, D.C.

I'm so glad that they made the right decision on this, finally. DC was clearly the best option for the Expos, and I hope that the franchise will flourish in our nation's capitol.

That said, could MLB have handled this whole relocation thing any worse? The owners were tangled up in conflicts of interest like limbs at an orgy. Damn, the owners really piss me off. A bunch of whiny rich old white guys and Arte Moreno, who is a rich hispanic guy. And he is probably whiny too. But I digress. Let’s review the lengthy process of how the Expos eventually came to reside in Washington, D.C.:

A few years ago, somewhere at an owner's meeting:

Jeff Loria: WAAAAH!

Bud Selig: What’s wrong, Jeffy?

Jeff Loria: Bud, owning the Expos totally sucks. No matter how little I spend on the team, no matter how hard I try to put a slightly above .500 at best ballclub on the field, those cheese-eating separatists just don't like baseball that much.

Bud: You need a new ballpark.

Jeff: No! I want a new TEAM, Bud!

Bud: Ohhh, poor Jeffy. I'll see what I can do.


Later, at the same meeting:

John Henry: WAAAAH!

Bud Selig: What’s wrong, Johnny?

John Henry: Bud, owning the Marlins totally sucks. We have all of this minor league talent that isn't ready to play yet, and baseball fans in South Florida are just offseason football fans.

Bud: You need a new ballpark.

John: No! I want a new TEAM, Bud!

Bud: Well, I'll see what I can do. You know, baseball really should thrive in South Florida, what with the large hispanic population and gorgeous weather.

Later on...

Bud: Now, you guys are sure that you don't want to gouge the taxpayers to get new stadiums?

JL & JH: Nooooo! I want a new TEEEEAAAM!

Bud: Well, here's what we can do. The Yawkey Trust wants to sell the Red Sox because they can't get state funding to tear down that old dump, Fenway.

JH: Fenway! Fenway is a national treasure, they shouldn't tear down Fenway! They should put seats on top of the monster.

Bud: Shut up, John. Every team needs new ballpark, unless it's privately funded. So, here's what I'm thinking: Loria, you buy the Red Sox, Henry, you buy the Expos from Loria and get them to build a new stadium, thus reviving baseball in Montreal forever. Henry, you sell the Marlins to the highest bidder. I'm sure there will be tons; after all, baseball really should thrive in South Florida, what with the large hispanic population and gorgeous weather.

JL: I don't like that plan! The Red Sox payroll is too high! I don't want to actually *spend* money on a baseball team; that should have been made abundantly clear to you in Montreal.

JH: Yeah, and I don't want to own the Expos. That franchise is the laughingstock of baseball.

JL: Hey!

JH: Oop, sorry, Jeff.

Bud: Well, how about this, then. We contract the Expos and the Twins. If that doesn’t work, Loria, you sell the Expos to the highest bidder. Henry, you buy the Red Sox from the Yawkeys. Loria, you buy the Marlins from Henry.

Loria: Hooray! Low Payroll! Beautiful Miami Beach!

Henry: Hooray! Fenway Park! I can charge $150 a ticket!

JL & JH: You’re the best, Bud!

Bud: That’s why I’m the commish!


Several months later:

Loria: WAAAAAAH!

Bud: What’s wrong, Jeffy?

Loria: Nobody wants to buy the Expos since I ran the franchise into the ground!

Bud: Awww, don’t worry, buddy. We’ll find you a buyer.

Loria (sniffling): Well, there is a chance I could sell…

Bud: What do you mean?

Loria: Well, these guys from Washington D.C. say that they’ll buy the Expos, but only if they can move them to Washington.

Bud: NO! NEVER! BASEBALL HAS NOT RELOCATED A TEAM IN 30 YEARS! WE ARE SEEN AS A BASTION OF CONSISTENCY THROUGHOUT THE SPORTS WORLD! WE WILL NEVER FORCE A FRANCHISE TO MOVE, EVEN IF IT MAKES PERFECT FUCKING SENSE! ALL OF OUR TEAMS ARE PILLARS OF THEIR COMMUNITIES, EVEN IF THEY ONLY DRAW 3,000 FANS A NIGHT. I WOULD RATHER DISSOLVE THE TEAM ALTOGETHER THAN HAVE THEM MOVE ANYWHERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Loria: Okay… well… here’s the thing. I kind of already bought the Marlins.

Bud: What?!

Loria: Yeah, the Yawkeys really wanted to sell the Red Sox, and Henry and his group of investors were willing to pay $700 million and, well, the Yawkeys didn’t want to pass that offer up.

Bud: Holy shit! $700 million! That’s some crazy coin.

Loria: Yeah, seriously. But in order to get some of that money, John kind of needed me to buy the Marlins. And I kind of did.

Bud: Well, that was good of you, Jeff. We owners have to look out for one another. I mean – you owners have to look out for one another. After all, we are losing tons of money every year (uproarious laughter).

Loria [cannot stop laughing]: Oh, God. Stop. That one gets me every time.

Bud: But it does put us in a peculiar predicament… now you own two teams, both of which are in the same league, and division. Some might call that a conflict of interest.

Loria: Hmmm… you’re right. What if we re-aligned?

Bud: I don’t know if that would do any good. Even if my current proposal of having two nine-division leagues passes, the Expos and the Marlins would still be in the same division.

Loria: Hmmm….

Bud: I know what we’ll do! We’ll sell the Expos to the other 29 owners, so that everybody has a conflict of interest with the Expos.

Loria: That’s genius!

Bud: Then, once we secure public funding for a new stadium in Montreal, we’ll find a buyer.

Loria: Bud, you’re the man.

Bud: That’s why I’m the commish!


A couple of years later, at another owner’s meeting…

Bud: Well, I have bad news, everyone. We haven’t been able to secure public financing for a new stadium in Montreal.

MLB Owners: Why not?

Bud: It seems that those cheap Quebequois don’t want their tax money going towards building a stadium for a sport they don’t care about or understand.

MLB Owners: That’s lame, Bud.

Bud: Totally. So, here’s my solution: Let’s move the Expos to Washington, DC. There’s a nice group there who wants to buy the—

Peter Angelos: WAAAAAH!

Bud: What’s wrong, Petey?

Peter Angelos: Washington is close to Baltimore! If you move the Expos to Washington, they will steal all of my fans and TV and Radio revenue! WAAAAAH!

Bud: Awww. Poor Petey. We can’t have those nasty ol’ Expos taking away your TV money, can we?

MLB Owners: But what about us? We keep dumping money into this franchise that none of us own! We want out!

Bud: Hmmm… This is quite the dilemma. Okay, how about this? The Expos play half of their home games in Puerto Rico.

MLB Owners: Um, what?

Bud: See, this way, the Expos can draw more fans without moving. We can put the gate we make in Puerto Rico towards the team’s payroll, so you guys won’t have to front as much of your money.

MLB Owners: Yay! Fronting less money!

Bud: But since this will only be a temporary solution, and it appears that nobody wants to buy the Expos as long as they’re in Montreal, I suggest we start taking bids from cities that want a major league team. The city that offers up the most public money for a new stadium gets the Expos! Then we’ll prolong the process as long as humanly possible so that we can drum up publicity about the team’s eventual move, thus raising the maximum bidding price for the team!

MLB Owners: Hooray, Bud! Four more years! Four more years!


A couple of years later…

Bob DuPuy: Bud, we’ve got a problem with the Expos.

Bud: Again? I thought we had taken care of it.

Bob: Well, it seems as though the players hate playing half of their “home” games in a stadium that isn’t in their home city.

Bud: What do they care? They’re getting paid millions to play baseball.

Bob: Well, some of them have families and—

Bud: What? You mean they are people and not robotic athletamotrons?

Bob: Um… well, the Player’s Union has decided to file a grieveance.

Bud: Fucking Player’s Union. Anytime we want to do anything, they’re there to throw a wrench into the works. Why don’t we just throw 5% of the gate at them or something?

Bob: Well, the Expos aren’t drawing in Puerto Rico. See, the people that live there are kind of poor and spent all of their money on the Expos’ trip last year.

Bud: Fucking poor people. How’s the relocation thing going?

Bob: Well, we’ve got some okay offers from Portland, Las Vegas, and Northern Virginia. We’ve got awful offers from Charlotte, Monterrey, Mexico, and Puerto Rico. And we’ve got this one really great offer from Washington DC.

Bud: Forget it. Angelos doesn’t want a team in D.C. I don’t want to hear his wrath – that guy was a lawyer.

Bob: But it’s the best offer –lots of public funding for a new stadium, they could play in RFK until that new stadium was built… Plus, we’ve been running some numbers and, well, despite what Mr. Angelos has been saying, Washington is the best place to relocate the team. It’s the largest metro area in the country that doesn’t currently have a team; market research indicates that there’s a good deal of interest; the per capita income is good… I’ve got to level with you, Bud. It’s not even close – Washington is the place we should send the Expos.

Bud: But Northern Virginia is pretty close, right?

Bob: Well, yeah, but it’s in the suburbs, there’s no mass transit, and I don’t know how wild people who actually live in the district would be about going out to Hampton Roads to see a baseball game. Plus, the public funding for a stadium isn’t as good, and they can’t guarantee that we would be able to play at RFK…

Bud: Okay, okay, I get you. Let me get Angelos on the horn.

Bud (on phone with Angelos): Petey, it’s Bud. Look, we’ve just got to move the Expos to Washington.

Angelos: WAAAAAAAAH! Nobody will come to see MY team! I’ll sue! I’ll sue everyone in major league baseball! I’ll take this sinking ship down with me! I’m a lawyer!

Bud (to DuPuy, frightened): He’s mad! I mean, he’s like, really mad!

Bob (whisper, now frightened as well): Ask him about Northern Virginia.

Bud: What about Northern Virginia?

Angelos: I’d have to review the proposal, but, probably WAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Bud: Tell you what, Petey. Don’t cry, buddy, come on now. Look, we’ll put together a nice financial package for you – whatever you want – and then we’ll move the Expos to Washington.

Angelos (sniffing): Ruh-really?

Bud: Sure, Petey! Anything for my buddy Peter Angelos.

Angelos (sniffing): Well, I want… a new TV and radio deal. And a new network! And I want to be subsidized if my franchise’s value drops even a little!

Bud (taking copious notes): Uh-huh, uh-huh… okay, Pete. We’ll see what we can do. Bye. (Hangs up phone.)

Bob: Bud, what are we going to do? We can’t give Angelos all that stuff.

Bud: We don’t have a choice! Nobody else has put up funding for a new stadium! Here’s what we’ll do. We’ll hem and haw about this in the media for about 6 more months, and then we’ll act like we’re begrudgingly accepting D.C. as the only viable place to move the Expos. Then we’ll sell the team.

Bob: And by doing this, we’ll avoid or reduce Angelos’ financial deal?

Bud: Probably not. If we give him anything but a dime less than what he wants, he’ll probably sue our socks off. But at least by stretching out this process for a painfully long time, it will seem like we’re negotiating with Angelos and thinking all of it over in great detail.

Bob: Bud, you are the man!

Bud: Thanks, Bob. Say, Bob, have you considered building a new stadium for yourself? You really can’t compete in today’s COO market without one.

L3Y stands for Last 3 Years 

If not Nomar...

Ross posted this comment on yesterday's blog:

The next question, however, is whom do you think the Cubs should replace Nomar with? The market isn't remarkable for shortstops, and the Cubs have no one within the organization ready to step up and grab the ML shortstop position. If the Cubs sign no one, it would be a year of Ramon Martinez at short.

This is a very good question. Let's review the shortstops who will be free agents after this season. We'll look at age, OPS and their Zone Rating:

(The table is in the blog above this one. Blogger is such a pain in the ass. They won't let you post tables using a fixed-width font such as courier, and you can't upload pictures unless it's through their stupid little program. Once I figure out how to imbed pictures into an entry I will. The good news is that you can right-click [ctrl-click for Maccies] on that image, select Open In New Window, and compare the numbers while reading the blog.)

Oh, if only there was some magical way to combine Nomar Garciaparra's defensive liabilities with Pokey Reese's swiss cheese bat! The Red Sox tried to do it this year, but then realized that they have a bunch of other guys who can hit the holy hell out of the ball and that defense had become more important to them than offense. They upgraded defensively at the most important position on the field: shortstop. With that in mind, the Cubs have to ask themselves, what is more important to us in 2005 at the shortstop position, defense or offense?

Personally, I'd like to see the Cubs get more defensively sound at short (especially if they are planning to bring back Todd Walker to play 2B, which it looks like they will do) and spend the money they saved not signing Nomar to get a powerful corner outfielder (Magglio Ordonez, JD Drew and Carlos Beltran all come to mind).

Let's look at an upside and a downside to the guys on this list that the Cubs might actually consider signing (this is everyone on the list but Counsell and Gonzalez).

Orlando Cabrera
Upside: Defensively very sound. Has hit well in the past...
Downside: ...although not this year, at all.

Nomar Garicaparra
Upside: The best hitter available at this position.
Downside: Defensive liability. Injury prone. 31 years old.

Cristian Guzman
Upside: Would be entering his 27th year, generally considered the "peak" year of a baseball player's capabilities; defense would almost certainly improve with the ground-ball-eating grass of Wrigley compared to the speedy turf of the Metrodome. Guzman is the youngest player on this list.
Downside: Isn't much of a hitter; isn't really that much of a defender.

Pokey Reese
Upside: Defense. You should look up Pokey Reese's Zone Ratings. They're amazing.
Downside: An automatic out. A gaping hole of offense. I can't really see the Cubs signing Pokey, unless it's for a bench spot.

Edgar Renteria
Upside: Still on the right side of 30, if only for one season more; solid hitter, solid defender (gold glove winner). Would be a major coup to steal him from St. Louis.
Downside: After monster years in 2002 and 2003, Edgar is having a pretty lousy season this year, by his standards.

Jose Valentin
Upside: He's a better defender than people think; he can hit for power
Downside: Never gets on base (.285 OBP this season), far on the wrong side of 30 (34).

Omar Vizquel
Upside: At the age of 37, I really can't see any upside to signing Omar Vizquel. He's a solid defender...
Downside: ... but he can't hit anymore, and hasn't really been able to since Robby Alomar was his double play partner. Vizquel has a downright lousy OPS of .698 over the last three seasons. But he's 37. I wouldn't put it past the Cubs to sign him if Nomar leaves town because of their penchant for "proven veterans."

All of that said, I think that the Cubs' best option for next year, considering defense, offense, and durability, is Edgar Renteria. The Cubs are still going to have Lee, Ramirez, Sosa, Patterson and Barrett; it's not like they are going to be totally dysfunctional offensively. Renteria would provide nearly the "contact" hitting Nomar would provide while providing superior defense (let's not forget, short is the most important defensive position on the field) and better durability (Renteria has averaged about 149 games per season in his career, which is 92% of team games, and has never played fewer than 133 in a full season).

It's not that I don't want the Cubs to bring back Nomar; I'd be very happy if they did. He's a really fun player to watch, and is obviously the elite offensive shortstop available. He is one of the easiest players in all of baseball to cheer for. It's just that he won't be worth what he's paid over the course of 3 or 4 seasons, because he will get hurt and he will be a defensive liability. Nomar is a good player, but he's a bad investment.

Nomar's Future With the Cubs (again)

Because I’ve been such a horrifically perfect employee today, I thought I would take a little time near the end of my day to answer a very good baseball question that my friend Ben asked my group of friends via e-mail today:

I understand not re-signing Moises, but Nomar? Why would we not pick up Nomar? Ok, Ok, he is hurt. (And this is an honest question, nothing argumentative) Is there anyone on the market equal to Nomar for cheaper?

I answered this question, at least in part, in another blog, but after looking it over, it became very evident to me that I did not really answer the question very well.

Before I delve into Nomar (and why the Cubs shouldn’t re-sign him), let me say something about Moises Alou. My mom loves Moises Alou. Every time we start talking about the Cubs and I allude to the Cubs not re-signing Alou, my mom says “Why wouldn’t they sign Alou?! He’s been great!”

And she’s right, Alou has been great (.286/.356/.552; 37 HR, 99 RBI through Sunday’s games), but Alou is also old. And I’m not talking just-reached-the-decline-portion-of-his-career old, I’m talking closer-to-40-than-30 old. I actually talked about it more in the aforementioned blog, so you can read about it there, but, in short: Alou is 38 years old this year. Very few 38-year-olds have seasons like Moises Alou is having. The chances of a 39-year-old Moises Alou having a season as good as (if not better) than the one he is currently having are about as good as my chances as the Chicago Tribune calling me up tomorrow and hiring me as the Cubs head beat writer. Moises Alou is not Barry Bonds. He will not be a good investment for the Cubs next year, unless they can figure out a way to pay him a lot less than the $11.5 million he is owed on his contract.

Nomar, I think, is just a bad investment for any team. And Ben mentions why; “He is hurt.” It’s not that he’s hurt now; it’s that he’s hurt every single year. Let’s look at the number of games Nomar has played each year in his career, excluding 1996 when he was a September call-up:


Year Games
1997 153
1998 143
1999 135
2000 140
2001 21
2002 156
2003 156
2004 73*

*-Through Sunday (155 team games)

It’s easy to see in which seasons Nomar has made at least one trip to the disabled list: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2004. That’s 5 years out of 8 that Nomar has gotten injured. What’s more, if you calculate the number of games Nomar has played over the last 8 years (977) and divide it by the number of games his teams have played over the last 8 years (1,289, through Sunday), we find that Nomar has played in little more than three quarters (75.8%) of his team’s games over the past 8 seasons, and has averaged about 123 games a season during that time. Sure, two of those seasons (2001, 2004) were skewed by the fact that he missed almost the entire season with injury, but that’s precisely the point - Nomar is a very good bet to land on the disabled list.

But, as Ben has pointed out, Nomar has been very good, and even excellent in his career. He won two batting titles while with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .357 in 1999 and an even more ridiculous .372 in 2000. However, since his wrist injury in 2001, Nomar has not been the same player. While his defensive numbers have stayed practically the same, Nomar has failed to produce even an on-base percentage as high as his first batting title total of .357 in 1999. His highest batting average total since his last batting title is .310 in 2002 (which he is currently matching this year). His highest on-base percentage since his last batting title is .352 (although this season it’s currently at .361 – but there’s still a week to go). Most telling of all, after three seasons with OPSs of .946, 1.021, and 1.033 (‘98-’00), Nomar has failed to break the threshold of .900 even once. Nomar is suffering through his decline phase. His age (31) and the fact that he is past his athletic peak (26-28 for most athletes) indicate that Nomar will probably never have a season like he had in 1998 through 2000.

But here’s the rub: “Is there anyone on the market equal to Nomar for cheaper?”

And the answer to that question is, of course, no. Nomar is the best offensive shortstop available on the free agent market this offseason. While there are lots of free agent shortstops on the market, only two of them (Edgar Renteria and Jose Valentin) come close to matching Nomar’s offensive output over the past 3 seasons, and both Renteria (OPS .737) and Valentin (.766) are having pretty lousy seasons this year.

The reason Nomar is a bad investment is the sheer amount of money that he will command. Because of what he did in Boston, Nomar’s value will spike to a value that, quite simply, he won’t be worth. In spring training of this year, Boston offered Nomar Garciaparra a 4-year contract worth $60 million. Nomar rejected it. This means one of two things: that Nomar didn’t want to stay in Boston, or that Nomar thinks he can get $15 million or more per year in the free agent market. While his injury probably hindered his chances of landing that kind of coin, a bidding war over Garciaparra could drive the price up to near that level. Unless it’s in the 7-digit-per-year range, which it probably won’t be, Nomar Garciaparra is not going to be worth what he’s paid. Think of it this way: Nomar has played in, basically, 3 out of 4 games over the course of the last 8 years. Would you want to pay your shortstop $60 million over 4 years and not have him play for almost an entire season out of that 4 years? Of course not. While there’s no guarantee that this would happen to Nomar, when one considers his past, one realizes there’s a pretty good chance.

Can't make up ground

The Cubs are currently tied for the best record in baseball over their last 10 games, at 8-2. Guess which team is the other that's 8-2 over their last 10? Yes, the San Francisco Giants. It seems like every time the Cubs have put together a good stretch, the team they're looking up at has put together the exact same good stretch, making it impossible for the Cubs to make up any ground in the standings. This from a team with Brett Tomko in their rotation. If you're like me and can't understand how the Giants have scored so many runs, I will give you two reasons:
1) Walks: an abundance of them - the Giants lead the NL in this category in no small part due to Barry Bonds' 200+ free passes.
2) Strikeouts: a lack of them - the Giants have struck out less than any other team in the NL.

Tonight the Houstons attempt to stick it to the Giants, but they lost 9-2 to Brett Tomko last night, so don't hold your breath, Chicago. The Cubs go up against Oliver Perez, probably the best pitcher on the Pirates' staff. The Cubs have raked against him this year (scoring 9 earned runs in 12 innings pitched), but his last outing was at Wrigley Field. This is important because Perez pitches more than two runs better at home: 4.54 ERA on the road, 2.27 at PNC.

Oh God

They're starting Neifi Perez, whose OPS (.575) is lower than Barry Bonds' OBP (.611). Great guy to put out there in a must-win game; the worst hitter in all of baseball from 1997-2001.

Ugly like Randy Johnson

3 errors. 7 runs. 18+ consecutive innings without scoring a run. The Cubs had better win the remaining 3 games of this series, or they will be very close to entering wheels-falling-off-the-bus mode. I hate to even think this, but there are no baseball fundamentals being practiced here. Wednesday the Cubs could have had at least one run if not for poor baserunning and questionable in-game decisions by Dusty.

Game 2 is about to begin. Some kid named Logan Kensing is making his first big league start in this game. Why do I have the feeling he will baffle the Cubs, if only by the virtue of the fact that they have never seen him before? He's definitely got an advantage for him in that he's pitching against the Cubs' worst pitcher, Mark Prior. It feels so weird to type that.

Scott Downs: Apparently, Cy Young

Before last night, how many shutouts had Scott Downs pitched in his career? Before last night, how many complete games had Scott Downs pitched in his career? Sadly, you can answer both of these questions with one number, and it is 0.

The Cubs' wild card lead is now less than zero. From out of nowhere, the Houston Astros have won 12 consecutive games, and suddenly are in that "if the playoffs started today" conversation.

While I won't dwell over the minutiae of why the Cubs probably lost last night (two words: Plate Discipline - the Cubs drew one walk on a guy whose K:BB ratio is 21:20 this year), I will discuss one idea that I keep hearing people discuss, at the ballpark and elsewhere - the idea that the Cubs don't deserve to make the playoffs.

This is a silly argument to have, of course, because the only way the Cubs will deserve to be in the playoffs is if they actually make it. Call me crazy, but it seems to me that the teams that make the postseason in baseball are the ones that deserve to make it. I mean, sure, the Cubs will probably have a better run differential than some of, if not all (except St. Louis) of the other playoff teams in the National League, and if that's the case and they still don't make the playoffs, that would suck. But it doesn't mean they deserve to go to the playoffs; it means they got unlucky, and/or had a poorly managed bullpen. Last year everything Dusty Baker touched turned to gold; he took a team that should have won 84 games (at most) to the 88-win level and a division championship. This year, despite having a much improved team, all of Dusty's golden touches have seemingly turned into rusty hooks. That doesn't change the fact that the Cubs still didn't win many of the games it seems they deserved to (there's that word again); it doesn't change the fact that the offense is either verile as a teenager or impotent as a Frenchman and nowhere in between; it doesn't change the fact that the Cubs (and Dusty Baker in particular) have not handled the pressure of the expectation of a winning season well; it doesn't change the fact that half the fans at the games this year are bloodthirsty bandwagon hoppers, who only cheer when the Cubs win and viciously boo when anything goes wrong (these people were not at Wrigley Field from the time I was 7 through 22), especially if your name rhymes with Rammy Rosa.

Clearly, a lot of this blog is just stemming from my frustration at the Cubs' inconsistencies. Obviously, a lot of Cub fans are trying to cope with what they view as the Cubs' failure this year by saying "maybe they don't deserve to make the playoffs." And I understand that mentality; how can a team with four 30+ HR guys, Nomar Garciaparra, Michael Barrett, Todd Walker, Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Greg Maddux, Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano NOT make the playoffs?

I wonder, too. But let's wait a few more weeks. That's when we'll find out if the Cubs are truly deserving of making the playoffs.

I apologize for this blog. It totally sucked. But then, last night, the Cubs totally sucked.

Cubs-Expos Preview

The thing about the baseball season is that you have to buy your tickets in some cases six months before you attend the game. In February, when Cubs tickets went on sale, I purchased 4 bleacher seats for tonight's Cubs-Expos game, in part because (a) they were available and (b) I knew that in all likelihood, I would be seeing baseball history; this will be the final Montreal Expos game played at Wrigley Field, assuming the Expos actually move from Montreal, and are re-named something other than the Expos.

However, hanging more delicately in the balance tonight are the Cubs' wild card hopes. The Cubs dropped another game last night, and are now in about a 6-way tie for the wild card lead. The Astros have won 12 games in a row, including their game this afternoon, and are currently tied with the Cubs for the NL Wild Card lead. A few blogs ago, I stupidly hypothesized that the Cubs might be on the brink of playing some really good baseball. They have responded by going 5-5 in their last 10 and continuing to whine and pout about calls not going their way. Meanwhile, the Astros have won 12 straight, the Marlins have won 8 straight, and the Cubs are looking to look like the 2000 Red Sox: a team with an abundance of talent, but an inexplicable capability to put it all together.

Last night's game was lost due to bullpen mismanagement - not bullpen performance, but mismanagement. Todd Wellemeyer, who pitched fantastically in the top of the 11th inning by striking out the side, looked awful in the 12th. I understand that the game was in extra innings at that point and you generally have to stretch your relievers a little more in those situations, but Todd Wellemeyer has not pitched more than one consecutive inning at the big league level this year, and he threw five more pitches than any other relief pitcher on the Cubs (Mercker, 33) did last night. Wellemeyer is 26, so he's no spring chicken, but he's also not used to throwing two consecutive innings, especially at the big league level.

Dusty's in-game decisions all year have flat-out mystified me at times. Last night, he brought in Calvin Murray (presumably) as a defensive replacement for Moises Alou. Calvin Murray went on to not get on base before Corey Patterson's solo shot in the bottom of the 12th. Not that Alou would have gotten on in that spot (he wouldn't have been batting in that spot anyway), but Moises Alou's spot in the order did come up in the bottom of the 12th, but since he was pulled already, the always clutch Ramon Martinez came up instead to not get on base. Come on, Dusty! Putting a 36-year-old tweener in for Moises Alou, whose slugging percentage at home is like .800 this year? I have said it before, and I will say it again: I do not Trusty in Dusty.

Dante Bichette: Pitcher

This is a story I couldn't resist posting: Dante Bichette signed on as a pitcher for the Indy Leagues' Nashua Pride (subscription to ESPN Insider required to read this link). This post is mostly for the benefit of Ross, who is a huge Dante Bichette fan.

...and Ben Grieve

I have mixed feelings when I read that Ben Grieve is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. On the one hand, he stinks. On the other hand, he's much better than the bench options the Cubs currently have for outfield, which include Tom Goodwin, Jose Macias, and Todd Walker (who doesn't actually play outfield), which means that he will improve the bench.

Cubs fans should interpret this signing as a Todd Hollandsworth backup plan. Hollandsworth was targeting a September 1st return, but has been set back, and is back in a cast. The Cubs miss his bat in a major way:

______ AB _ AVG/ OBP/ SLG
Goodwn 087 .218/.274/.310
Grieve 108 .261/.364/.415
T.Holl 148 .318/.392/.547
Macias 155 .258/.284/.368

The next time one of your friends tries to tell you that either Jose Macias or Tom Goodwin is, well, any semblance of good, you should fart in their general direction. Goody has an OBP of .274, which means he makes an out 72.6% of the time. Macias makes an out 71.6% of the time. Those are not good odds. Ben Grieve brings some plate discipline with him; his on-base percentage is more than 100 points higher than his batting average, something that's always very nice to see. The really sad thing is that Ben Grieve's .364 on-base percentage currently ranks second on the club behind (guess who?) Todd Hollandsworth. Hopefully playing under Dusty Baker won't ruin Ben Grieve's patience at the plate. This is easily the best asset he brings to the table for the Cubs.