Sosa Trade, Cubs.com Poll

Well, it’s been a long time since I’ve written an entry in this spot, and a lot has happened since I last wrote, namely the signings of every single big name free agent.

But more importantly, Sammy Sosa (.253/.332/.517 in 478 AB) was traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Jerry Hairston Jr. (.303/.378/.397 in 287 AB) and two minor league nobodies. This was clearly a personality dump; Jerry Hairston (26 career home runs) will not come close to matching Sosa’s offensive production (35 home runs last year). With Sosa and Moises Alou (.293/.361/.557, 39 HR) gone, the Cubs will almost certainly score fewer runs next year than they did last year.

However, Cub fans don’t seem to think so. Most Cubs fans I have talked to are so happy to see Sosa leave town that they don’t care that the Cubs have received the baseball player equivalent of dirt water in return for the franchise leader in home runs. A poll on Cubs.com confirms that theory: The question is, “Are the Cubs a better team with Burnitz and Hairston?”

59% of the fans responding (28,346 out of 47,959 votes) say yes.

Now, I have been upset with Cubs fans in the past for being less than up to speed about the realities of what was going on with the team. A perfect example of that is last year, when fans came out and booed Sammy Sosa. I never understood why they booed Sosa last year; sure, his numbers started to drop off, but the man is 36 years old, is the franchise leader in home runs, and was the only star on the team for years. Sure, after the season was over, Sosa made some poor choices in terms of his comments to the media, and he walked out on the team on the last day of the season, which is totally inexcusable. However, to say that the Cubs are better, or will be better without him, is just plain stupid. And 6 in 10 Cubs fans are being just plain stupid. There is no way you can lose a player who hit 35 home runs the season before and improve unless you receive a player (or multiple players) who equal that player’s value. Cubs fans want to think that having Jerry Hairston will allow the Cubs to hit-and-run or play “small ball” or whatever, but at the end of the day, Jerry Hairston plus Jeromy Burnitz is not equal to Sammy Sosa.

In Jerry Hairston, the Cubs have received a player who was supposed to be the starting second baseman of the Orioles since 2001. Hairston has been disappointing as a starter, but has worked well as a bench player. His .303 batting average and .378 on base percentage are very attractive to a team who never seemed to have players on base when their hitters went deep last season; however, those numbers are misleading, as Hairston had just 278 at-bats last season. Hairston’s career line is much more revealing of the type of hitter he really is: .261/.334/.371. The last time Jerry Hairston started in most of his team’s games, 2002, he hit a very average .268 and posted a very below average on-base percentage of .329. Hairston adds some value with his speed and defense, but the bottom line is that the Cubs traded the greatest slugger in the history of their franchise for an average backup 2B/LF.

Sosa’s replacement, Jeromy Burnitz, is basically a worse version of Sammy Sosa. He is prone to strike out and tries to hit the ball out of the park too much. He is also well on the wrong side of 30. Let’s look at their averages for the past three seasons. This includes Burnitz’s Coors-inflated 2004, and Sosa’s dropoff in 2004, which is somewhat of an equalizer for these players:

Sosa: Age 36: .274/.366/.556, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 1.9 strikeouts per walk

Burnitz: Age 36: .247/.324/.474, 29 HR, 80 RBI, 2.46 strikeouts per walk

Over the last three years, Sosa has averaged nearly 30 points of batting average better than Burnitz, more than 40 points of OBP, and more than 80 points of SLG. That is 100 points of OPS. That is a lot of offensive production. To make matters worse for Cubs fans, Burnitz has averaged nearly 20 fewer RBIs and strikes out more frequently for each walk he takes. Oh, and in case you were curious, Burnitz performed frighteningly close to those mediocre 3-year averages outside of Coors Field last season (.244/.327/.448; only 13 of Burnitz’s 37 homers were hit on the road last season).

Asking whether or not the Cubs will be better next season is a production question. There is, quite simply, no doubt that the Cubs offense will suffer from the loss of Sammy Sosa. Cubs fans who genuinely believe that the team will be better with Hairston and Burnitz are likely in for a disappointing summer. However, these are probably the same fans who booed Sosa in the first place last year. It will be interesting to see who they lay their blame-boos on this year.

Now, I’m not writing off the Cubs’ chances. I believe that this team could be better than last year’s team if the pitching stays healthy and if the Cubs can convert with runners on base (which was the base of their scoring problem last year). However, to say that they are a “better team with Hairston and Burnitz” is foolhardy.