Outfield Prospects: Swisher vs. Dubois; A's vs. Cubs

From ESPN's Sunday Roundup:

On the bus ride back from Tucson on Saturday, manager Ken Macha had the driver pull into a Dairy Queen, where he paid for the team's treats.

"We all went in uniform and people looked at us like maybe we were a softball team," Macha said. "I went to the counter and said, 'I'm the coach of this team, please total everything up and give me the bill.' It was a little over $50.

"When I was 8, cones were 10 cents, so for 13 players it was $1.30."

Outfielder Nick Swisher said he ordered "the biggest Blizzard I could get, with chocolate chip cookie dough."

Just because he's the Moneyball Kid, he thinks he can get the biggest blizzard he wants.

There's concern about Mr. Moneyball this spring. He is coming off of thumb surgery and is just 9-for-42 (.214) this spring with 0 extra base hits. That lack of extra base hits should be a red flag for the A's; Swisher slugged .537 at AAA Sacramento last year. Still, Swisher, 24, will probably be starting one of the outfield corners for the A's this April. This is because the A's have a steady process of bringing up their young players and getting them to the big leagues before their 25th birthday so that the A's can get the most of the young player's athletic peak (generally from ages 25 through 29, depending on the player). As one might expect, the A's aren't concerned with a statistical sample from spring training, numbers that are very close to meaningless.

Meanwhile in Mesa, where the Cubs make camp, 26 year-old Jason Dubois is hitting .393 (15-for-28) this spring with 4 homers and is slugging a video game-esque .821. Dubois slugged more than .600 at Iowa last year, so he's clearly ready for big league action. What's more, at 26, Dubois is likely to have a good season this year and an even better one next year. However, all indications are that Dusty Baker's proclivity for playing veterans will rule once again and that Todd Hollandsworth will get the start in left field. Hollandsworth has also had a great spring, hitting .323 (10-for-31) with a .516 slugging percentage. However, Hollandsworth is 32 this year, and been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career. He hasn't played what could be considered close to a full season since his 1996 Rookie of the Year campaign in which he played 149 games. Since then, Hollandsworth has averaged just 83 games a season, and it's not for lack of opportunity; it's because he has gotten hurt every single year he has been in the major leagues.

That's not to say that Hollandsworth can't stay healthy for a full year; it's just that he probably won't. It would behoove the Cubs to play Dubois every day instead of Hollandsworth, because Hollandsworth is going to get hurt at some point. Since Dubois is younger, and is probably going to be a comparable hitter to Hollandsworth, if not better, it makes much more sense to leave Hollandsworth in the role he is more suited to play: backup. This will limit Hollandsworth's playing time, will help prevent (what may be an inevitable) injury. Todd Hollandsworth off the bench is a great weapon. Todd Hollandsworth on the disabled list is no weapon.

It's interesting how two organizations with deep farm systems take such different approaches to bringing their players to the big leagues. The A's seem to have a plan for every player, bringing each player along according to a long-term plan, and then adjusting that plan year by year depending on how well the player does. Last year, 23 year-old Nick Swisher hit .269/.406/.537 at AAA Sacramento. To the A's management, that says, "This kid is ready to play in the bigs." They leave a roster spot open during the offseason so that Swisher can get promoted and play outfield for the A's in 2005. Swisher is having a lousy spring, but despite that, Oakland's management is smart enough to know that the sooner Swisher gets used to big league pitching, the sooner he will start to hit it, and the only way he will get used to it is by seeing it every day.

Meanwhile, the Cubs seem to be clueless in handling their hitting prospects. Of course, we know that the Cubs can develop starting pitching (if you include Greg Maddux, four of the Cubs' five starting pitchers are home grown - of course, two of them are injured, but that's another blog all together), but there is only one position player that has grown out of the Cubs system: Corey Patterson, who, for all his toolsy goodness, has been a major disappointment offensively at the major league level (.262/.303/.431).

Once the Cubs get their hands on a good hitting prospect, they have a tendency to:
a) clog their major league roster with overpriced veterans in spots that are ready to be filled by young players. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs will do with Derrek Lee after his contract runs out after 2006 and Brandon Sing will be 26 and ready to play.
b) trade their prospects before they ever get to the big leagues
c) rush their players along and bring them to the bigs before they're ready (Patterson)
c) force the youngster to "make an impact" on the big league club by hitting .300 or better in 200ish ABs earned in spot starts and pinch hitting roles. I would imagine it's hard for a player used to getting 4 or 5 at bats per game to face more difficult pitching fewer times per game. It would probably be a lot easier for that player to adjust to the more difficult pitching if he saw more of it. We saw this with Bobby Hill in 2002-2003. Hill, a second baseman, had seasons of .380/.429 and .365/.424 at AAA Iowa, yet when he failed to produce in 194 ABs (.253/.327/.374) for the Cubs, he was dealt.

I'm not saying that the Cubs missed the boat on Bobby Hill; they traded him as a part of the Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez deal, which was a great deal for the Cubs. And really, Bobby Hill is never going to be a great player (although given the chance he could be a serviceable starter for a team like the Mets, who are throwing money at Kaz "Suckzilla" Matsui). I'm using Hill as an example because he's one of the few position players from the minors that has actually gotten an opportunity to play in the Baylor/Baker Destroy All Youth regime. It's almost as if they expect immediate results at the big league level, and if your numbers aren't comparable to what you put up in AAA, well, back into the oven with more seasoning. It's unreasonable to believe that even the best players are going to be Ron Santo or Albert Pujols in their big league debuts, but that seems to be what the Cubs expect (except, for some reason, from Corey Patterson).

I can't help but wonder what more Dubois would have to do to be given the benefit of the doubt and the everyday start. The guy has raked at every single level of the minor leagues, and now he's doing it at spring training. If he were in the A's organization, he probably would have been starting in the big leagues every day in 2004, after he hit .269/.367/.458 in the pitching-heavy southern league (AA) in 2003. He hit a mind-boggling .314/.388/.629 at AAA Iowa last year. The Pacific Coast League is a good hitter's league, so those numbers are a bit inflated; but Nick Swisher slugged .537 in the PCL last year, and he is getting the starting job with the A's.

Think about this: The Cubs have an opening in left field after Moises Alou left. The Cubs have a 26 year-old left fielder who slugged .600 at AAA last year. Most organizations would be looking at this situation and thinking, "boy, what perfect timing to bring up this kid who slugged .600 at AAA last year to replace Moises." Instead, the Cubs are looking at this situation and thinking, "boy, it's a good thing we've got this "proven" veteran who is a career .279 hitter to replace Moises." Except the only thing Hollandsworth has "proven" is that he will get hurt.

Even in Spring Training, the most meaningless of small sample sizes, Dubois is raking, and indeed, hitting better than Hollandsworth or Swisher. Yet come opening day, it will be Nick Swisher and Todd Hollandsworth making starts for their respective teams, and the man who would probably be the best hitter of the bunch this year will be left on the bench.