2005 NL West Predictions

Team, 2004 Record, 2004 RS/RA, 2004 Expected Record

Dodgers, 93-69, 761 RS/684 RA, Ex W-L: 90-72
Giants, 91-71, 850 RS/770 RA, Ex W-L: 89-73
Padres, 87-75, 768 RS/703 RA, Ex W-L: 88-74
Diamondbacks, 51-111, 615 RS/899 RA, Ex W-L: 52-110
Rockies, 68-94, 833 RS/923 RA, Ex W-L: 73-89

The National League West is easily the most open division in baseball this year. The Dodgers, Padres and Giants are all going to contend for the division title, and none of them are going to have more than 92 wins. They are all very similar teams, in that they all have a few strengths and big weaknesses.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the team that has the most realistic chance of winning this division. I say that because they will likely finish with a similar Runs Scored to Allowed ratio as last year, and that will probably be good enough for them to get 88-92 wins and the division title. The Dodgers, when healthy, have a formidable offense that will produce a lot of runs with JD Drew, Milton Bradley and Jeff Kent in the middle of the lineup with young Jayson Werth continually improving in left. Hee Seop Choi, 26, will hit now that he has a chance to play every day (people forget he had an .883 OPS with the Fish last year before he was traded to the Dodgers). Jose Valentin replaces Adrian Beltre at third, and while he won't reproduce Beltre's numbers or get on base much, he is a good candidate to hit 30 home runs, which is why the Dodgers signed him. The Dodgers have a good pitching staff if they're healthy; Brad Penny, Odalis Perez and Derek Lowe is a pretty solid 1-2-3 punch for a team that plays in a great pitchers park, although Penny and Perez have been trudging through injuries this spring. Despite Derek Lowe's troubles last year, he is going to benefit from playing in Dodger stadium in front of a much improved defense (for him); Cesar Izturis is a vaccuum, easily a better defender than Nomar Garciaparra or Orlando Cabrera. Jeff Kent is not a slick fielder, but he's certainly no Mark Bellhorn. Jose Valentin is probably the most underrated defensive infielder in baseball. The Dodgers are very thin on the bench, and are thin in the starting rotation beyond Perez, Penny and Lowe. Their bullpen, anchored by Eric Gagne and Giovanni Carrara, should be among the best in baseball again. A lot of talking heads are wondering what the Dodgers are going to do without Guillermo Mota in the pen, but Paul DePodesta knows that quality bullpen help is often just a phone call to Vero Beach away. With a healthy Penny and Perez, the Dodgers could win 93 games again, but don't count on it... the Dodgers will probably end up winning somewhere around 87-91 games, and that will be good enough for the division title.

I came very close to picking the Padres to finish second, but the San Francisco Giants always seem to overperform. The reason they do this is probably because of Barry Bonds, about whom I may have said a word or two in this space. The question for the Giants is, when will Barry return? Without Bonds, the Giants are a team of old men who will creak their way to a second or third-place finish. With Bonds, the Giants add the equivalent of two good hitters rolled up into one and transform themselves into instant contenders. The Giants' hitters are old. It is completely unreasonable to expect Omar Vizquel, Moises Alou, J.T. Snow, Marquis Grissom, or Mike Matheny to improve over last year's offensive numbers. If you compare production of the Giants' free agent signees to the production they had at the position last season, it ends up looking like this (2004 OPS in parentheses):

2004 C: AJ Pierzynski (.729 OPS); 2005 C: Mike Matheny (.640 OPS) - Result: Major offensive decline
2004 SS: Deivi Cruz (.753 OPS); 2005 SS: Omar Vizquel (.741 OPS) - Omar Vizquel turns 38 on April 24. He is moving from Jacobs Field to one of the toughest pitcher's parks in baseball. Result: Major offensive decline.
2004 RF: Michael Tucker (.765 OPS); 2005 RF: Moises Alou (.919 OPS) - Alou hit 1.120 at Wrigley and .716 on the road last year. While I will say that the result is a minor offensive improvement, don't be surprised if Alou, who turns 39 in July, collapses this year.

The Giants are hoping that their pitching staff, which contains bright spots like Noah Lowry, Jeromie Robertson and, perhaps the best pitcher in the NL, Jason Schmidt, will help them survive. I'm not counting on it. The funny thing about this division though, is that the Giants are probably just about as close to winning the division as they are to a total collapse. It all depends on Mr. Bonds (a) returning and (b) being as ageless as he has been over the past several years. The Giants will win 85-89 games this year, and will contend for the NL West title. Without Barry Bonds, don't be surprised to see the Giants become a .500 (or worse) club.

I just don't buy what the San Diego Padres are selling. Okay, they've got a nice young pitching staff in Jake Peavy, Brian Lawrence and Adam Eaton, and Woody Williams should be a nice innings-eater for them. Of course, they may have the best bullpen in all of baseball with Chris Hammond, Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka, and Trevor Hoffman.

But how is this team going to score runs? In terms of handeness, the Padres are a very balanced team, with four lefties and four righties in their starting lineup. But the problem is that the lefties (Klesko, Giles, Burroughs) are supposed to be the best hitters on the team, but PetCo park has been extremely unfriendly to them. Meanwhile, the right-handed hitters seem to do pretty well at PetCo; Phil Nevin hit 26 homers last year, Khalil Greene hit 15, Mark Loretta hit 16. Ryan Klesko, who has averaged 28 home runs per 162 games over the course of his career, hit just 9. The Padres need their left-handed thumpers to thump, and they're not going to do that in PetCo. The Padres will win 85-89 games and contend for the NL West crown. With a few key injuries to the Dodgers and the potential age-related collapse of the Giants, the Padres could emerge as easy winners in this division, but they are going to have to get a lot of hitting for that to happen.

When I hear people on television like John Kruk say that if Bonds is out for the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks will win the division, I want to call them up and yell, do you realize how awful the Diamondbacks were last year? I mean, do you have any idea? The Diamondbacks were 51-111, winning 31.4% of their games, the worst mark in baseball by 7 games. They scored the fewest runs in the National League and allowed the third-most, and that was with Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb. Apparently when there's a lot of movement on a team, it's enough to distract people from facts like that, and they come to believe that Shawn Green, Troy Glaus, Russ Ortiz and Javy Vazquez will be enough to make this team improve by... 30something games? That's ridiculous. Shawn Green is overrated, as is Russ Ortiz. The combination of Ortiz and Vazquez in the pitching rotation will probably help a little bit, but not all that much; remember, this is a team that had the best pitcher in the National League on it last year, and they still only won 51 games. Shawn Green is one of the most overrated players around. He's a decent player, but he is clearly past his peak, which took place during his age 26-30 seasons (1998-2002). He's never going to hit 40 homers again, although he's a good bet to hit 30 in the thin air in Arizona. Troy Glaus could hit 40 homers in that park, but he was out most of last year because of a shoulder injury that he got when he was fielding. As a result, the Angels played him at DH for most of the time when he returned so as not to re-aggravate it. He does not have that option in Arizona, and they are apparently not going to move him to first base, which might have helped.

Don't listen to John Kruk; the Diamondbacks are going to be bad. I would be shocked if they won more than 76 games this year, and they probably won't win that many. If they do manage that many victories, Arizona fans should poop their pants with glee,

Quick: name one starting position player on the Colorado Rockies not named Todd Helton.

Preston Wilson. Okay, there's one. Ummm... Aaron Miles? Is he still with them? Okay, that's two.... Umm.....

Actually, the Rockies have one of the more exciting rookies in the NL in a young man named Jeff Francis. The problem is, he's a pitcher, and we all know what happens to pitchers at Coors Field. It doesn't keep me up at nights, but sometimes I wonder if the Rockies will ever contend as long as they're playing a mile above sea level. They have had one wild card season there, so it's possible, but it sure doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon.

Other than Francis and Todd Helton, one of the great hitters of the 90's and oughts, the Rockies don't have a lot going for them. They have a lot of promising young hitters in their minor league system. But this year, the Rockies will be the worst team in the National League. Expect them to win 60-66 games.